← Explore · Market KXELECTUKRAINE-30JAN01-29JAN01
Will Ukraine hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2029?
55.0% implied · bid 52.0¢ · ask 58.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 58.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability58.0%
Bid / ask / mid52.0¢ / 58.0¢ / 55.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (10.9%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 21/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$503 / $580
Imbalance43% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.19
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.16pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1215d 6h.
Time to resolve1215d 6h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%