← Explore · Market KXEUREF-30-HUN
Will Hungary hold a referendum on leaving the EU?
8.0% implied · bid 3.9¢ · ask 12.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 5.6pt over 24h, on a 8.1¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.9¢ / 12.0¢ / 8.0¢
Spread8.1¢ (101.9%)
Change 24h-5.55pt
Change 7d+0.05pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$50 / $120
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score9.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.39
RSI (14, hourly)50.1
Realized vol 7d3.68pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1215d 6h.
Time to resolve1215d 6h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%