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← Explore · Market KXG7LEADEROUT-26JUL20-EMAC

Will President of France be the first to leave office?

70.5% implied · bid 67.0¢ · ask 74.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 65.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.

Implied probability65.0%
Bid / ask / mid67.0¢ / 74.0¢ / 70.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (9.9%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+0.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 16/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 14% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$765 / $744
Imbalance14% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.91
RSI (14, hourly)51.4
Realized vol 7d2.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 6694d 7h.

Time to resolve6694d 7h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth