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← Explore · Market KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-AFD

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag?

85.0% implied · bid 84.0¢ · ask 86.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 85.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability85.0%
Bid / ask / mid84.0¢ / 86.0¢ / 85.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+26.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 17% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,723
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$576 / $575
Imbalance17% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 83 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.94
RSI (14, hourly)83.3
Realized vol 7d5.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1298d 6h.

Time to resolve1298d 6h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth