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← Explore · Market KXGERELECTION-29MAR25-UNI

Will CDU/CSU win the next election to the German Bundestag?

12.0% implied · bid 8.0¢ · ask 16.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 15.0%, down 10.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.

Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 12.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (66.7%)
Change 24h-10.50pt
Change 7d-19.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$31
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$40 / $80
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 41 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.38
RSI (14, hourly)40.7
Realized vol 7d5.64pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1298d 6h.

Time to resolve1298d 6h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth