← Explore · Market KXMAMDANIOUT-26AUG-28JAN01
Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2028?
5.5% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 8.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 8.0¢ / 5.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (90.9%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5 / $136
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 17.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean17.71
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.22pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1222d 6h.
Time to resolve1222d 6h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%