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← Explore · Market KXMAMDANIOUT-26AUG-29JAN01

Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?

16.0% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 19.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 18.0%, down 18.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.

Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 16.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (37.5%)
Change 24h-18.00pt
Change 7d+0.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$25 / $38
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.29
RSI (14, hourly)50.6
Realized vol 7d9.43pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1222d 6h.

Time to resolve1222d 6h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth