← Explore · Market KXMAMDANIOUT-26AUG-29JAN01
Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2029?
16.0% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 19.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, down 18.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 16.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (37.5%)
Change 24h-18.00pt
Change 7d+0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$25 / $38
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.29
RSI (14, hourly)50.6
Realized vol 7d9.43pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1222d 6h.
Time to resolve1222d 6h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%