← Explore · Market KXMAMDANIOUT-26AUG-30JAN01
Will Zohran Mamdani announce their departure as Mayor of New York City before Jan 1, 2030?
38.5% implied · bid 36.0¢ · ask 41.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 35.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability35.0%
Bid / ask / mid36.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 38.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (13.0%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$105 / $84
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.87
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d4.36pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1222d 7h.
Time to resolve1222d 7h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%