← Explore · Market KXMARSVRAIL-50

Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

32.0% implied · bid 30.0¢ · ask 34.0¢

The market prices this at 29.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability29.0%

Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 34.0¢ / 32.0¢

Spread4.0¢ (12.5%)

Change 24h+1.00pt

Change 7d+1.50pt

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$30

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$270 / $268

Imbalance11% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score30.3 / 100

RSI 56 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.04

RSI (14, hourly)55.6

Realized vol 7d0.87pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 8520d 7h.

Time to resolve8520d 7h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Sum of outcomes100.0%