← Explore · Market KXNEXTSECARMY-30JAN01-SPAR

Will Sean Parnell be the next Secretary of the Army before Jan 1, 2030?

48.0% implied · bid 22.0¢ · ask 74.0¢

The market prices this at 30.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 52.0¢ spread.

Implied probability30.0%

Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 74.0¢ / 48.0¢

Spread52.0¢ (108.3%)

Change 24h-5.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,362

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score0.0 / 100

RSI 48 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.18

RSI (14, hourly)48.4

Realized vol 7d13.04pt

Change 1h+24.00pt

Resolves in 1222d 7h.

Time to resolve1222d 7h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Sum of outcomes100.0%