← Explore · Market KXNEXTUKPRIMEMIN-35JAN01-KBAD
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?
21.5% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 26.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.0%, up 8.5pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
Implied probability26.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 21.5¢
Spread9.0¢ (41.9%)
Change 24h+8.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$34 / $156
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score5.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.43
RSI (14, hourly)50.7
Realized vol 7d3.10pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3048d 6h.
Time to resolve3048d 6h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%