← Explore · Market KXPOLIOELIM-30

Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?

5.8% implied · bid 4.0¢ · ask 7.6¢

The market prices this at 5.0%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 3.6¢ spread.

Implied probability5.0%

Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 7.6¢ / 5.8¢

Spread3.6¢ (62.1%)

Change 24h-1.05pt

Change 7d+0.00pt

Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$98

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$919 / $226

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score32.6 / 100

RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.56

RSI (14, hourly)47.2

Realized vol 7d0.73pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 1215d 7h.

Time to resolve1215d 7h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Sum of outcomes100.0%