← Explore · Market KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

4.5% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 6.0¢

The market prices this at 5.6%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability5.6%

Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 6.0¢ / 4.5¢

Spread3.0¢ (66.7%)

Change 24h-0.45pt

Change 7d-0.40pt

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$392 / $43

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score35.2 / 100

RSI 40 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.93

RSI (14, hourly)39.9

Realized vol 7d1.43pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 1215d 6h.

Time to resolve1215d 6h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Sum of outcomes100.0%