← Explore · Market KXTAIWANLVL4-28JAN01

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?

20.5% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 21.0¢

The market prices this at 18.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability18.0%

Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 20.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (4.9%)

Change 24h-0.50pt

Change 7d+1.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$43 / $108

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.1 / 100

RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.36

RSI (14, hourly)33.3

Realized vol 7d0.89pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 1215d 6h.

Time to resolve1215d 6h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Sum of outcomes100.0%