← Explore · Market KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?

29.0% implied · bid 27.0¢ · ask 31.0¢

The market prices this at 27.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability27.0%

Bid / ask / mid27.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 29.0¢

Spread4.0¢ (13.8%)

Change 24h-5.00pt

Change 7d-3.00pt

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13 / $155

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score30.1 / 100

RSI 49 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.57

RSI (14, hourly)48.6

Realized vol 7d1.80pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 1215d 6h.

Time to resolve1215d 6h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Sum of outcomes100.0%