← Explore · Market KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01

Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?

40.5% implied · bid 40.0¢ · ask 41.0¢

The market prices this at 40.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability40.0%

Bid / ask / mid40.0¢ / 41.0¢ / 40.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (2.5%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-1.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$202 / $371

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.3 / 100

RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.19

RSI (14, hourly)46.9

Realized vol 7d1.45pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 1215d 6h.

Time to resolve1215d 6h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Sum of outcomes100.0%