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← Explore · Market KXUKGEYEAR-30JAN01-29

Will it be confirmed that 2029 was the calendar year in which the official polling day for the next UK general election occurred?

51.0% implied · bid 48.0¢ · ask 54.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 51.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.

Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid48.0¢ / 54.0¢ / 51.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 21/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 21% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,149 / $911
Imbalance21% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score21.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.20
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d2.88pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1222d 7h.

Time to resolve1222d 7h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth