← Explore · Market KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-DXUE
Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
24.5% implied · bid 22.0¢ · ask 27.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 27.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability27.0%
Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 27.0¢ / 24.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (20.4%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$47 / $54
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.34
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d1.25pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6694d 7h.
Time to resolve6694d 7h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%