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← Explore · Market KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LQIA

Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?

16.0% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 19.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 16.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.

Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 16.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (37.5%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+4.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$206
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$67 / $38
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 89 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 6.7σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean6.65
RSI (14, hourly)88.9
Realized vol 7d0.55pt
Change 1h+3.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 6694d 7h.

Time to resolve6694d 7h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth