← Explore · Kalshi · Market EUCLIMATE-2030

Will the EU meet its climate goals?

45.2% implied · bid 42.4¢ · ask 48.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 48.0%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 5.6¢ spread.

Implied probability48.0%

Bid / ask / mid42.4¢ / 48.0¢ / 45.2¢

Spread5.6¢ (12.4%)

Change 24h-0.10pt

Change 7d-0.45pt

Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 22/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$281 / $314

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score22.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 47 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.08

RSI (14, hourly)47.1

Realized vol 7d1.27pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 2249d 11h.

Time to resolve2249d 11h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If the EU has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 55% compared to the 1990 level by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.