← Explore · Kalshi · Market EVSHARE-30JAN-20
EV market share in 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 61.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability61.0%
Bid / ask / mid60.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 62.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-1.50pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$331 / $348
Imbalance43% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.51
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d0.85pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1184d 11h.
Time to resolve1184d 11h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSettlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is -2160.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 20% in Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.