← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXACTORTOMCRUZ-30-TOM
Will Tom Cruise be cast in a Film With Ana de Armas?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 57 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 76.4σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1518d 11h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Tom Cruise is cast in a Film With Ana de Armas before Dec 31, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
This market DOES NOT encompass the upcoming Doug Liman film 'Deeper', in which both are slated to star. Resolution will only occur if the two are officially cast together in a different film during the life of the market For the purposes of this market, “cast” means any credited acting role, whether live-action or voice acting in an animated film. Cameos or background appearances only count if the performer is officially listed in the cast credits. Producer-only or behind-the-scenes roles don’t qualify. Uncredited cameos, extras, or walk-ons are excluded.