← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXAFRICALEADEROUT-35-BT
Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, flat over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2980d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If the President of Nigeria is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.