← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXAGICO-COMP-26Q4
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1519d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.