← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXAGICO-COMP-28Q3
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 69.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 23% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 5.5σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1519d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
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Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Other venues
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How this settles
Summary
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.