← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXBESTLLM-29DEC31-ESSN
Best LLM at the end of the decade?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 6.1σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1160d 11h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Essential AI has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. If the top model's organization is not listed, every market resolves No.