← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXBIRCHSWINN-32-29JAN01
Will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved before 2029?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 45.5%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 14% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1890d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2029 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
For purposes of this Contract, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is considered resolved if at least one of the following occurs and has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time: A peer-reviewed article presenting a complete proof, a complete disproof, or a counterexample establishing the falsity of the conjecture, in the conjecture's original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been published in one or more Source Agency peer-reviewed journals. A recognized authoritative body for the academic field of the conjecture, including but not limited to Clay Mathematics Institute, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, a national academy of sciences, the Nobel Foundation, or an equivalent governing or recognition body for the relevant academic field, has officially recognized in a written communication that the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies have published reporting describing the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, as having been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work, and no Source Agency has, prior to the Expiration time, published reporting that such written work has been formally retracted by its author(s) or by any publishing journal, has been formally withdrawn or repudiated by its author(s), or contains an identified error that has not been publicly corrected or addressed by the author(s) in a subsequent publication or amendment.