← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXBRAZILPRES-30OCT27-FBOL

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?

9.0% implied · bid 7.0¢ · ask 11.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 7.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability7.0%

Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 9.0¢

Spread4.0¢ (44.4%)

Change 24h-2.00pt

Change 7d-3.00pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$43

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$67 / $28

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score30.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.46

RSI (14, hourly)33.3

Realized vol 7d0.81pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1484d 12h.

Time to resolve1484d 12h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is -8015.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

A special election held under Article 81 of the Constitution of Brazil does NOT count as the 2030 Brazilian presidential election. Only the candidate elected President counts; a candidate elected Vice President does NOT count. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.