← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXBRAZILPRES-30OCT27-MBOL

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?

4.5% implied · bid 2.0¢ · ask 7.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 2.0%, flat over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.

Implied probability2.0%

Bid / ask / mid2.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 4.5¢

Spread5.0¢ (111.1%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$56

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$20 / $93

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score25.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1484d 10h.

Time to resolve1484d 10h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is -8015.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Michelle Bolsonaro wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

A special election held under Article 81 of the Constitution of Brazil does NOT count as the 2030 Brazilian presidential election. Only the candidate elected President counts; a candidate elected Vice President does NOT count. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.