← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXBRAZILPRES-30OCT27-TFRE
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1484d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If Tarcísio de Freitas wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
A special election held under Article 81 of the Constitution of Brazil does NOT count as the 2030 Brazilian presidential election. Only the candidate elected President counts; a candidate elected Vice President does NOT count. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.