← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXBRAZILPRESPARTY-30OCT27-MISS

Will Missão win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?

1.5% implied · bid 1.0¢ · ask 2.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 1.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability1.0%

Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 2.0¢ / 1.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (66.7%)

Change 24h-3.00pt

Change 7d-4.50pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$10

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.09

RSI (14, hourly)33.3

Realized vol 7d2.50pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1484d 9h.

Time to resolve1484d 9h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is -8015.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Missão wins the 2030 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

A party wins if the candidate elected President of Brazil is registered with the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) under that party's name, including any later name of that party. If a listed party merges into another listed party, only the party the winner is registered under resolves to Yes. A candidate who runs under another party's name, even if backed by the party, does not count for it. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.