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← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXCEONVDA-01JAN33-01JAN31

Will Jensen Huang leave as Nvidia CEO before Jan 1, 2031?

15.5% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 19.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 15.5%, flat over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.

Implied probability15.5%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 15.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (45.2%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$23 / $38
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 2250d 10h.

Time to resolve2250d 10h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 17544.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If the CEO of NVIDIA Corporation has announced, or it has been announced on their behalf, that they have left their position as CEO after issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

The CEO covered by this event is Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA Corporation at issuance. The CEO must actually leave their position; announcing a future departure alone does not qualify. The departure must be announced by the CEO or on their behalf after issuance and before the specified date. "Before" excludes the specified calendar date. Each deadline is evaluated independently, so more than one market can resolve to Yes.