← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXCOLONIZEMARS-50

Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?

26.6% implied · bid 25.2¢ · ask 28.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 25.2%, flat over 24h, on a 2.8¢ spread.

Implied probability25.2%

Bid / ask / mid25.2¢ / 28.0¢ / 26.6¢

Spread2.8¢ (10.5%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5 / $143

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score36.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 8459d 10h.

Time to resolve8459d 10h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people residing on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.