← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?

19.0% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 21.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 22.0%, down 7.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability22.0%

Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 19.0¢

Spread4.0¢ (21.1%)

Change 24h-7.50pt

Change 7d-12.50pt

Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 14% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,748

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$73 / $164

Imbalance14% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score30.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 59 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.13

RSI (14, hourly)59.3

Realized vol 7d1.07pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 3343d 9h.

Time to resolve3343d 9h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

USGS

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.