← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXELONMARS-99

Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?

9.5% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 10.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 9.0%, flat over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability9.0%

Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 9.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (10.5%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$448 / $467

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 26568d 10h.

Time to resolve26568d 10h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sources

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes.