← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXERUPTSUPER-0-50JAN01
When will a supervolcano next erupt?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.0%, flat over 24h, on a 10.0¢ spread.
Implied probability26.0%
Bid / ask / mid26.0¢ / 36.0¢ / 31.0¢
Spread10.0¢ (32.3%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$36 / $47
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8459d 10h.
Time to resolve8459d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If a supervolcano erupts before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.