← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXFDAAPPROVE-MDMA-30JAN01
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 50.0%, flat over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1884d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
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Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
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How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do NOT constitute approvals: Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Approval only for export or for use outside the United States If the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve to No unless the FDA subsequently approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD after addressing the CRL concerns and before Jan 1, 2030. If the FDA convenes an Advisory Committee that votes against approval but the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD anyway before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve to Yes. If midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD receives accelerated approval that is later withdrawn before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve based on whether the initial accelerated approval occurred after Issuance (Yes), regardless …
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An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do NOT constitute approvals: Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Approval only for export or for use outside the United States If the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve to No unless the FDA subsequently approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD after addressing the CRL concerns and before Jan 1, 2030. If the FDA convenes an Advisory Committee that votes against approval but the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD anyway before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve to Yes. If midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD receives accelerated approval that is later withdrawn before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve based on whether the initial accelerated approval occurred after Issuance (Yes), regardless of the subsequent withdrawal. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before FDA action and before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve to No immediately.