← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXFDATYPE1DIABETES-33
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 Diabetes before 2033?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 35.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability35.0%
Bid / ask / mid35.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 36.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (5.6%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$26
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$199 / $1
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.34
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d0.48pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2250d 12h.
Time to resolve2250d 12h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSettlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If the FDA approves a cure for Type 1 diabetes before Jan 1, 2033, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.