← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXFUSION-40-JAN01
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 52.5%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability52.5%
Bid / ask / mid50.5¢ / 52.5¢ / 51.5¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.9%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$232
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$253 / $398
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.00
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1hn/a
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4806d 10h.
Time to resolve4806d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
No price history yet.
Probability timeline
No history yet.
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 10.0h after scheduled close.
Summary
If nuclear fusion is achieved before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.