← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXG7LEADEROUT-26JUL20-KSTA
Will Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be the first to leave office?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.0%, flat over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 50% to the bid (buyers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6633d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If the individual holding the title of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the time of Issuance is the first within G7 leaders to leave their position, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.