← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXINDIANPM-29APR30-DFAD
Will Devendra Fadnavis become Prime Minister of India following the next Indian general election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1273d 11h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
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Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
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How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If Devendra Fadnavis becomes Prime Minister of India as a result of government formation following the next Indian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Apr 30, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Apr 30, 2030, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.