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Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benjamin Netanyahu is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, flat over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1461d 11h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
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Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
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How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Benjamin Netanyahu is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market concerns the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, including a government formed after repeat elections. A new government is formed when the Knesset expresses confidence in it. A retained incumbent counts if appointed in that new government; continuation in the outgoing government does not. Minister of Defense means the holder of the Defense portfolio, including a Prime Minister who also formally holds it. An acting substitute, deputy minister, additional minister within the Defense Ministry, or Minister of National Security does not count. If the portfolio is initially vacant, the first person subsequently appointed to it in that government counts. Nominations, coalition agreements, intended appointments, and hypothetical scenarios do not qualify as taking office. Later replacements do not change the first officeholder.