← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXJAPANHOUSE-30FEB07-CDP
Will Constitutional Democratic Party win the next Japanese general election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, flat over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1219d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If Constitutional Democratic Party wins the next Japanese general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.