← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXMARSVRAIL-50
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 33.0%, flat over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8459d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
- NASA
- ESA
- SpaceX
- Blue Origin
- the Chinese National Space Administration
- Roscosmos
- the California High-Speed Rail Authority
- the Federal Railroad Administration
- the California Department of Transportation
- The New York Times
- the Associated Press
- Bloomberg News
- Reuters
- Axios
- Politico
- The Washington Post
- The Wall Street Journal
- ABC
- CBS
- CNN
- Fox News
- MSNBC
- NBC
- Space.com
Summary
If a human lands on Mars before California starts its high speed rail service for the public before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.