← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXMEXICOPRES-30JUN02-MEBR

Will Marcelo Ebrard win the 2030 Mexican presidential election?

5.5% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 8.0¢

The market prices this at 5.5%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.

Implied probability5.5%

Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 8.0¢ / 5.5¢

Spread5.0¢ (90.9%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-2.00pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$18 / $20

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score25.0 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.7σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.69

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.23pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 1335d 11h.

Time to resolve1335d 11h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

Settlement sources

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is -8039.0h after scheduled close.

If Marcelo Ebrard wins the 2030 Mexican presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.