← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXMEXICOPRESPARTY-30JUN02-MORENA
Will Morena win the 2030 Mexican presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 60.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 86 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.0σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1336d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Morena wins the 2030 Mexican presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Winning party: The party of the winning candidate is the party named as that candidate's party of origin in the coalition agreement registered with the National Electoral Institute (INE) for the election. A candidate registered by a single party without a coalition belongs to that party. If the agreement names no party of origin, the party of the winning candidate is the coalition party with the most votes for President in INE's district computations, after votes marked for more than one coalition party are distributed among those parties. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.