← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXMEXICOPRESPARTY-30JUN02-PRI

Will PRI win the 2030 Mexican presidential election?

2.0% implied · bid 1.0¢ · ask 3.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 1.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability1.0%

Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (100.0%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 50% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$10

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance50% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1336d 12h.

Time to resolve1336d 12h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Order book unavailable.

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is -8039.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If PRI wins the 2030 Mexican presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Winning party: The party of the winning candidate is the party named as that candidate's party of origin in the coalition agreement registered with the National Electoral Institute (INE) for the election. A candidate registered by a single party without a coalition belongs to that party. If the agreement names no party of origin, the party of the winning candidate is the coalition party with the most votes for President in INE's district computations, after votes marked for more than one coalition party are distributed among those parties. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.