← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXMILLENNIUMNEXT-45-HODGE
Will Hodge be solved next before 2045?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 27.0%, flat over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6639d 12h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
- The Guardian
- National Academy of Sciences of the United States
- Financial Times
- Associated Press
- the Clay Mathematics Institute
- Science
- Nature
- arXiv preprint repository operated by Cornell University
- Royal Society
- the American Mathematical Society
- the International Mathematical Union
- The Washington Post
- the New York Times
- Max Planck Society
- American Association for the Advancement of Science
- British Broadcasting Corporation
- Quanta Magazine
- The Wall Street Journal
- French Academy of Sciences
- Bloomberg News
- Reuters
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Scientific American
- The Economist
Summary
If Hodge Conjecture is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
A Millennium Prize Problem is considered Solved at the earliest time that any of the following occurs: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as officially formulated is published in a peer-reviewed journal. The Clay Mathematics Institute or another recognized authoritative academic body officially recognizes in writing that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work. If multiple problems have the same Solution Time, each is treated as the next problem Solved and the market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied problems. A qualifying solution ceases to count if, before Expiration, it is formally retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, rescinded, or found to contain an identified and unaddressed error.