← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXMLBDEBUT-EHOLLIDAY-30NOV01
Will Ethan Holliday play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 85.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 48% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1458d 10h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If Ethan Holliday plays for any MLB team in a regular season or playoff game before Nov 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
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