← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXMOONMAN-31-R

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

1.9% implied · bid 1.9¢ · ask 2.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 2.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability2.0%

Bid / ask / mid1.9¢ / 2.0¢ / 1.9¢

Spread0.1¢ (5.1%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d+0.00pt

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,489 / $119

Imbalance5% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score50.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 23933871995145.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean23933871995145.58

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1519d 12h.

Time to resolve1519d 12h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source

Settlement sources

The New York Times

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Russia is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.